Sunday, January 08, 2006

A Look At Ottawa (Part I)

Ottawa-Centre
Well Super Ed is gone and that means that there is in fact a race of simple mortals. The race is essentially between Richard Mahoney, former Ontario Liberal Party president and Paul Martin Executive Assistant and NDP candidate Paul Dewer who’s mother was the city’s mayor a while back. In terms of quality of candidates, the Green Party’s Deputy Leader David Cherchenko is running and he could possibly be the best of the lot. The Liberals should win the riding but it will be very close. Dewer is running in Broadbent’s shadow and he knows it. All his campaign literature have Ed’s face all over it and so does the website. Mahoney is running a good campaign and since has the national connections he will be sure to have the resources he needs.

Prediction:Liberal Pickup

Ottawa-South
The Tories have a star candidate running here, sponsorship scandal whistleblower Allan Cutler. Problem is nobody knows who he is. The Conservatives have run a lackluster campaign here and that will allow David McGuinity to win this riding once again. Cutler is not a household name outside of political fanatics. When it comes to names of sponsorship characters he is not A-list (which if you think about is a good thing). Getting his story out is hard, normal door-to-door campaign literature is not that effective and he is not receiving much earned media. The major Ottawa press has not covered this riding and that is a major hinderers when the focus you need is on your candidates background.

Prediction:Liberal Hold

Ottawa-West Nepean
Former Harris cabinet minister John Baird is running against newcomer and former Ottawa Councilor Lee Farnworth. Baird isn’t very popular, added that this isn’t even his riding but he is known and that sometimes means just as much. Last time around the Liberal campaign thought they had lost this riding but ended up pulling it off in the end. One of the big reason that Sean Casey (2004 Tory candidate) lost was not just his lack of experience but there lack of troops on the ground. They had major manpower problems on E-Day which was a significant problem. With the trends nationally, Baird is expected to win this riding handily but I have heard from a reliable source that an internal Farnworth poll showed that they are in fact ahead in the riding as of mid-December (before the major shifts). Thus the Liberals are starting to put in major resources in the riding. It will be a Tory win but a lot closer then it could have been.

Prediction:Conservative Pick Up

Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa-Vanier to come….

2 Comments:

  • At 1:19 AM, Blogger OttawaCon said…

    Mahoney appears to be in trouble. Given that it is an incumbent seat for the NDP, he is spending a lot of time attacking the Conservative candidate Keith Fountain, and is not getting a lot of traction with that.

    The ethnic communities have clearly drifted away from the Liberals - back in Mac Harb's day, you would see nothing but Liberal signs on Somerset and Preston.

    The Citizen called it a true three-way race, and with Liberal support continuing to collapse the NDP seemprety confident.

     
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